Will 2023 be the year that was or merely a prelude of the years to come?

It is likely that 2023 will be remembered as the point at which humanity’s inability to deal with a climate crisis of its own making the was finally and fully exposed.  Will 2023 be also remembered as an inflection upon which the science is truly accepted by society thereby driving radical and rapid change?  Or will the heat anomaly and catastrophes of 2023 be looked back upon as one of the cooler, more stable years in people’s lives.

2023 WAS A YEAR OF EXTREMES

This past year has now been confirmed as the hottest year in recorded history – a record surpassed by a large margin and much sooner than predicted.  Scientists repeatedly expressed shock as successive heat records fell, and warned the world is moving dangerously close to the 1.5-degree limit that nearly 200 countries sought to avoid in the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Deaths from heat stroke are at an all-time high around the world. Millions around the globe are now stranded in inhospitable conditions by global heating. The graph shows some of the many records broken – these from the global measurements just prior to the year end. There were countless local records also surpassed.

In addition to global atmospheric temperatures – many other records were were smashed in 2023 including:

• levels of heat absorbed by Earth’s oceans, which have been warming year-on-year for the past decade
• loss of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic,
• extent and duration of ‘heat domes’ (such as in Phoenix Arizona with over 30 days above 43 degrees C / or 110 F),
• extent of rainfall (especially in China) and flooding (with the flood in eastern Libya considered the worst disaster of the 21^st century)
• extent and duration of droughts with associated food insecurity,
• total hectares lost from wildfires (especially in Canada – see chart).

• Policy initiatives in many countries (USA, Canada, much of Europe and even China) are driving the increased uptake of electric vehicles and the building of energy efficient buildings.

• Governments, fossil fuel firms and airlines are increasingly being met with climate lawsuits. According to data bases run by the Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, there are more than 2,500 lawsuits recorded globally, and this shows no sign of stopping any time soon. Why? – because it is highly effective.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2024

According to most predictions, 2024 will be as hot or hotter than 2023. Vast areas of Earth’s oceans were record-warm for most of 2023, and it will take many months for that heat to be released. Moreover, an intense episode of the planet-warming El Niño climate pattern is nearing its peak, and the last time that happened, it pushed the planet to record warmth (in 2016).

It is also likely that the momentum that has been building towards the transition away from fossil fuels, will continue. Afterall, the awareness about the climate emergency within the public is higher than it has ever been. Any kind of denial about the reality climate change has been burned to a crisp.

As well, many scientists are increasingly optimistic about the power of technology to change the world, and in terms of our fight against climate change it’s one of the strongest levers that we have.

Massive forms of activism though, would be an even stronger lever. Political will depends on the mood of voters. What worries me is the trend towards extreme right-wing politics along with disinformation tactics that can easily work towards pushing the stop button on progress and even take us backwards. As I wrote in a previous article, capital has an outsized influence on politics thus sowing decades of division while the situation has worsened. In fact – Capital is rewarded by governments around the world, with subsidies estimated by the World Bank to be 23 million dollars per minute.

Indeed, capital (or big money) had an outsized influence on the last COP conference with oil industry lobbyists outnumbering the delegates of many developed countries –   hence a weakened commitment. Many from the science community feel that the text included language to placate fossil fuel interests and thus fell far short of what was needed on emissions reductions and finance to help the most vulnerable cope with worsening extreme weather and heat. The statement should, as a minimum, have stated the need to “phase out” of instead of “a transition away” from fossil fuels. In instances like these – words do matter.

Where does all this leave us? My conclusion is the same as for my last article. Short of donating to environmental organizations, or initiating our own forms of advocacy, the most important action we can individually do is to vote for our future and convince others to do the same. Politics matter – especially this year with so many critical elections taking place.  Any politician that does not acknowledge the crises the planet is facing and endorse a legitimate set of plans to deal with climate change and planetary destruction is not fit for office. We all have the power to ensure this happens and to advocate for change.

NOTE

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/cop28-landmark-deal-agreed-to-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-drought/202311#:~:text=Globally%2C%20November%202023%20ranked%20as,some%20cases%2C%20countering%20beneficial%20precipitation.

https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-on-course-to-shatter-more-records-as-countries-around-the-world-speed-up-deployment

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231208-the-legal-battles-changing-the-course-of-climate-change?ocid=ww.social.link.email

Wildfires Show How Our Planet is in Peril – Why Then is There a Political Divide?

Humanity is in the hot seat; humans are the cause. On this, there is universal consensus among scientists. Unfortunately, this does not translate into political consensus. If fact it is quite the opposite.

Headlines from the media scream out the urgency. ‘Era of Global Boiling’ // ‘Antarctica Missing and Argentina-Sized Amount of Sea Ice’ // “Florida Records Unprecedented ‘Hot Tub’ Temperatures” // ‘European Weather: Blistering Cerberus Heat Wave’ // ‘Canada Experiences Worst Fire Season on Record’ // Maui Fires Leave a Trail of Death and Destruction//Yellowknife – Entire City Evacuated.  These are not “sky is falling” headlines but most often from quotes by climate scientists.

These are but a few of the headlines we are seeing daily. July has now been confirmed as the hottest month in recorded history (see graph). Smoke from Canada’s plagued northeastern cities in Canada and the USA forcing millions to avoid being outside. Deaths from heat stroke are at an all-time high around the world. Already, around 600 million people have been stranded in inhospitable conditions by global heating. The death toll from the Maui fires is over 100 and growing each day as the houses are searched.  Any kind of denial about the reality climate change has been burned to a crisp.

THE SCIENCE – THEN AND NOW

Scientific Consensus: The human-caused global warming is undeniably the main factor in causing the deadly heatwaves and significantly amplifies the resulting extreme climate events, that have struck our planet this year. This is clearly stated in the landmark report published on in March 2023 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), assembled by the world’s foremost climate experts, approved by all the world’s governments and endorsed by all national science academies and associations. The all-important scientific consensus is discussed in this article – https://www.environmentmatters.ca/climate-change-facing-reality-debunking-misinformation/

 The report is clear. “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”

 Extreme Frustration: The major frustration for scientists around the world is the fact that these climate events were predicted decades ago – in some cases even coming from individuals within fossil fuel industry research departments. https://www.environmentmatters.ca/climate-change-industry-knew-this-was-coming-2/

 Some events exceed predictions:  What is even more worrisome is that some of the events occurring in the past 2 years have been worse or have arrived sooner than even the direst predictions. These include, but are not limited to, the rapid rise in ocean temperatures, the massive loss of Antarctic Sea Ice, and the rapid weakening of the Gulf Stream.

Politics: Capital has an outsized influence on politics thus sowing decades of division while the situation worsens. In fact – Capital is rewarded by governments around the world, with subsidies estimated by the World Bank to be 23 million dollars per minute. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/15/vast-fossil-fuel-and-farming-subsidies-causing-environmental-havoc-world-bank

 Outright climate change denial no longer resonates given the extreme climate events of the past 5 to 10 years. The messaging is now directed towards attacking climate change solutions — regulations, renewable energy, sustainable cities, sustainable agriculture, and many other necessary endeavours. It’s a nonsensical “the cure is worse than the disease” kind of argument. Social media is co-opted to advance this negative messaging with Meme’s and Bots that make impressions without the need for facts or even context. Once formed, impressions are remarkably perseverant. It is a standard manipulation tactic because unfortunately it works. It’s easy to fall for misinformation, especially when the fake items reinforce preconceived ideas.

 This is playing out for all to see in the USA. Since the late 1970s, every Republican administration has rolled back or even reversed any kind of environmental progress that had been previously accomplished. The most infuriating case was the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, reversing years of careful work and negotiation by scientists, diplomats and politicians. This was followed by an orchestrated evisceration of the EPA – even to the extent of removing any reference to climate change on the agency’s web site and written documents.

 Fortunately, the new administration rejoined the Paris Accord and was successful in implementing the boldest US climate and environmental justice bill in US history – strangely called the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However – every single Republican voted against the plan and after the midterms there are efforts afoot to the repeal the IRA.  Moreover, in the past month an influential right-wing foundation (the Heritage Foundation) funded by big industry has initiated a 22-million-dollar project (as a presidential proposal called Project 2025) to bolster the fossil fuel industry and reverse or even eliminate programs directed towards sustainable energy.

 Similar tactics are being observed in Europe. After two years of real progress, a ‘greenlash’ is brewing. In the UK, the ruling Conservative Party is actually campaigning against a net zero goal. In Canada – the political tactic of the Conservative Party is to simply ignore the issue. For the new leader Pierre Poilievre, and his party, the choice is to talk about everything but climate change. In Alberta, the Premier has initiated a moratorium on wind and solar projects.

 The most disturbing development in my view though, has been the co-opting of environmental issues into the very irrational ‘culture wars’ engulfing democracies around the world. Companies addressing ESG (Environmental, Social Governance) are being labelled ‘woke capitalists’. (NOTE :: “Woke” seems to be a term that is widely misused as it normally means talking about racial and social justice). Climate scientists and campaigners are being bombarded with claims they are alarmists, communists, shills, woke stooges, global elites, and more. Several state governments have enacted laws that prevents cities from implementing renewable energy building codes. Sadly, it seems that now environmental protection is part of the culture war, neither policy details nor rational arguments matter.

 This is unfortunate. The climate crisis is too serious to politicize. The world is facing an existential threat that is universal and requires cooperation within and between countries. We can no longer allow corporations to be unhindered in maximizing shareholder profit while incinerating the planet. We need to remember though – that we – the voters elect our governments. So – what about us?

 What about us: From my own readings, I find there is a wide range of emotions and opinions within the electorates of countries around the world – exasperation, anxiety, anger, dismay, dismissal, and even in some cases denial, along with a sense that there’s nothing we can do. Many still see the threat to be distant and far into the future.

 Eco- Anxiety is real especially among youth. A global survey in 2021 of 10,000 people between the ages of 16 to 25 revealed that about 60 percent told researchers they felt “very” or “extremely” worried about climate change with nearly 4 in 10,  “hesitant to have children”.

 My predominant emotion is OUTRAGE– in that these crises were predicted. There’s no question that anger or outrage – especially among our youth, is justified. Society has been conned and lied to for decades – and now we are facing the planet’s fury.

 But we are all part of the problem. I believe there is an instinct that some of the needed changes will decrease our quality of life. There is an emerging sense of what many are labelling solution aversion. Some solutions, while absolutely necessary, will be challenging and perhaps even unpalatable – such as a significant price on carbon, the gradual phase out of gasoline and diesel fueled cars, elimination of natural gas in new construction, a proper (significantly higher) cost of animal protein as it becomes decoupled from deforestation, no-car cities, carbon surcharges on flying, elimination of many forms of packaging, extreme restrictions on water use, etc.

 Many solutions will be viewed by some as an assault on individual freedoms instead of the need to address the common good. Many politicians are already using these challenges as wedge issues in upcoming elections – attacking climate solutions. For instance – the Conservative Party in Canada has vowed to eliminate the carbon tax without proposing a plan to finance a needed energy transition and without mentioning that the major oil companies around the world are NOT paying a fair share of taxes. https://www.marketforces.org.au/campaigns/subsidies/taxes/taxavoidance/

 My hope is that the majority will see this crisis for what is really is and become increasingly informed and in doing so, accept and endorse change even when inconvenient and costly.  NOT taking the needed actions will be much more costly and harmful in the near and distant future. This fact is very clear.

 Short of donating to environmental organizations, or initiating our own forms of advocacy, the most important action we can individually do is to vote for our future and convince others to do the same. Politics matter.  Any politician that does not acknowledge the crises the planet is facing and endorse a legitimate set of plans to deal with climate change and planetary destruction is not fit for office. We all have the power to ensure this happens and to advocate for change.

NOTE

There is a multitude of sources that provide information on reducing environmental impacts of our lifestyles https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/12/27/35-ways-reduce-carbon-footprint/

I have not addressed the significant environmental impacts by many non-democratic countries. That is another topic.